Afghanistan Endgame: Lessons from Cambodia 1973-1975

History has limitations as a guiding signpost, however, for although it can show
us the right direction, it does not give detailed information about the road conditions.
But its negative value as a warning sign is more definite. History can show us what to
avoid, even if it does not teach us what to do by showing the most common mistakes
that mankind is apt to make and to repeat.

Questions about the long-term viability of the Afghan government and its ability to resist Taliban incursions are becoming more seriousin light of the quickly declining number of U.S. and international troops in that country. Insecurity in Afghanistan stems from numerous factors, including the future of the bilateral security agreement with the United States, the results of the April 2014 presidential election, and potential foreign policy actions of states such as Pakistan, India, China, and Iran in 2015 and beyond. American policymakers and senior military officers are united in their wish to ensure the survival of the Afghan regime beyond 2014. Yet, there is currently no consensus on the policies that would help achieve success. To develop guidance and to identify actions U.S. strategy should avoid, academics, experts, and policymakers sometimes compare the drawdown in Afghanistan to the U.S. withdrawals from Iraq and Vietnam.

This article offers the view that a more helpful analogy for Afghanistan would be the U.S. withdrawal from Cambodia in the 1970s.